Tag: sharemarket

Wry & Dry #24 of FY-24. Brainless and invertebrate. “Keep it up-vibe…” Trusts’ tax.

It’s obvious. The Prime Minister doesn’t have a spine. And the Leader of the Opposition doesn’t have a brain.

If Readers hadn’t already drawn this conclusion before spending the summer swimming in the pristine waters of Port Phillip Bay or safely in Sydney Harbour, then the new year’s emissions of cant and idiocy from these two icons of incompetence will have settled any doubt.

Wry & Dry #17 FY-24: China. Keating. Anti-Semitism.

Some weeks ago, Wry & Dry suggested that the incoming head of the Productivity Commission Ms. Michelle Wood might get the DCM before starting her job. Her then sin was proposing an inheritance tax.

Wry & Dry mused then that perhaps she suffered from RDS. Proposing an inheritance tax certainly got the headlines.

But then on Wednesday, she again put her head above the parapet.

Wry & Dry #16 FY-24: Trumpster: diary. Anti-Semitism mask. Albo’s straining belt buckle.

Saturday: Florida. Played golf with some champion golfers. An Irish fella called McIlroy, a chick from South Korea, Jin Young Ko and a bloke named Tiger something. I WON!

Sunday: New Hampshire. Spoke at a rally. Told them “I don’t mind being Nelson Mandela.” I am willing to GO TO JAIL to defend democracy. Mandela was a patriot, like me. India should be proud of him.

Monday…

Wry & Dry #13 FY-24: Disaster: Chairman Dan’s DCM. Trumpster the fraudster. PwC.

In a DCM-move that surprised many, Chairman Dan gave himself the DCM on Tuesday. This is a disaster of great magnitude.

Cartoonists all over Australia have lost a subject that yielded the Everest of political satire and ridicule. They feasted on the opportunity provided by arguably the most hated politician since Julius Caesar, whose DCM, unlike Chairman Dan’s, was not self-inflicted and caused by 27 knife wounds from six grumpy conspirators.

Emboldened by his own outstanding oratory and aided by an Opposition as weak as the Wallabies and as divided as post-war Germany, a fawning media and an upper house cross bench that were easily bought, he bestrode the political world like a colossus.

Wry & Dry #7 FY-24. “No child will live in poverty.” Trumpster the mobster. VinFast what?

When the Indians are circling your wagon, the lessons of Politics 101 are clear. Divert attention away from the Indians until the cavalry arrives. What better diversion than a big, ‘nation building’ policy.

Former PM Bob Hawke was a master at this. Readers will remember either of “no Australian child will live in poverty” and/or “we will plant one billion trees.”

Wry & Dry #5 FY-24. Trumpster smashes own record. Phoenix Team. US credit downgrade.

What proud citizen of the USA would not want a president who admitted to a business relationship with a porn start? Really, it’s about free speech. And free trade.

Or one whose high intellect and sense of history meant that building a personal library of really historic documents was really understandable.

And now, conspiracy. Really? What’s the fuss? Who in politics hasn’t conspired before, during or after office?

WRY & DRY #28: Sorcerer. Besties. Millions.

Three and a half weeks ago, Apprentice Jim Chalmers presented to the world his pleasant sounding but really vague ‘objectives of superannuation’ paper. But as each new subsequent morning dawned, he found that he had become the Sorcerer’s Apprentice. It started as a theoretical ‘shoot-the-breeze’ exercise that would lead to a rational way to increase taxes on some superannuation investors. It soon turned into a media circus, the RPM of which was daily increasing.

Finding the crunch point – RBA raising rates? What? 

In our recent communications, we have suggested that the RBA, while it can reduce interest rates and mortgage costs through 2024, could benefit significantly by following the rest of the world’s lead in reducing rates. This approach would result in a longer pause at current rate levels, particularly in the face of higher or persistent domestic inflation. 

Read as our CIO explains how interest rate increases can disproportionately affect different segments of the economy.

Company Profit ‘Reporting Season’ preview

It’s an intense time of year for equity market professionals. But one that is welcomed because of the opportunity to review financial data, hear about company strategy, assess management and operational performance, and to review one’s own stock selection and analytical prowess.

Lull before company profit reporting season

Late July is when there is a lull in company news, as industrial companies are in communication lockdown before company profit reporting in August. Mining companies are busy releasing production reports and not much else, also ahead of profit reporting.

Out with the old, in with the new

There has been a significant period of de-equitisation in the Australian equity markets in the past couple of years. Our portfolios, and performance, have been the beneficiaries of this phenomenon.  Several stocks we own are subject to takeover bids:

Selectivity and Productivity

This week we discuss two major topics. Japan and why we are more heavily invested than global benchmarks and Productivity: why is this a problem for Australia and how does it impact returns?

Going, Going, Gone – the de-equitization of the Australian Equities Market

Two of our investments, Costa Group and United Malt, received confirmation relating to takeover bids this week.

Both takeovers provided support for our investment strategy. This strategy concentrates on finding opportunities where the market fails to price either the long-run asset or the franchise-based value of a company, and instead focuses on short-term earnings fluctuations. In such cases it is often an external party, via a takeover, that unlocks the value.

EOFY, Inflation and Small Caps

The curtain is about to fall on another financial year. FY-23 has been a year of very good investment performance across First Samuel various portfolio strategies.

Clients should expect their Flash Performance reports within 10 days, always noting that all portfolios are individually managed, with different asset mixes and security selections.

The Health of Australia’s Employment Market

This week’s Investment Matters strikes out on a different path to usual. We will present a range of background information on the changing nature of the labour force following a decade of rapid aging and massive inbound migration.

Jittery consumer meets unrepentant RBA

This week’s Investment Matters continues our examination of the RBA’s tightening cycle and the increasing fragility amongst cohorts of Australian consumers. Have the screws been tightened too far already?

What Alternative assets do investors have?

This week we spend some time discussing a small but important component of most clients’ portfolios, Alternative Assets. We’re in the process of making new venture capital-style investments in health and financial services.

We also discuss another new Australian Equity portfolio holding called Impedimed (IPD ASX).

Did Aussies just stop spending?

In addition to the usual market updates, this week’s Investment Matters provides updates on two companies in client portfolios: Costa Group and Aristocrat.

Some interesting introductions

We’re always looking for new ideas to introduce into the investment portfolios. A spate of recent takeovers within the portfolio (think Newcrest, Origin, United Malt, Pushpay, Eildon Capital) has accelerated the need for fresh ideas to replenish building cash positions.

Banks and Budgets

A busy week in financial markets given the conclusion of the Australian Bank 1H23 profit reporting cycle and the announcement of the Federal Budget. Our discussion will focus on each in turn.

Conferencing

This week the Australian investment world was dominated by one event – the Macquarie Equites Conference in Sydney. We will provide a quick run through of major themes and highlights from companies to which our clients have exposure.

Sayonara

This week in Investment Matters, we have three sections that provide important updates on clients positions in Eildon Capital, Reliance Worldwide and Mineral Resources.

Over the course of the later part of this week and next many companies will provide updates to the market, including mining companies, smaller companies and those presenting at upcoming investor conferences. We will cover as many as possible of these updates in coming weeks.
O the economic front we discuss the impacts of the review into the RBA that goes beyond the changes mentioned in the headlines.

Battery Powered Portfolios

This week in Investment Matters, we have two news items relevant for client portfolios and a piece designed to assist with understanding how an investment in the portfolio has been restructured

Gold and price of money

This week in Investment Matters we have two items relevant for client portfolios. The first is the revised takeover conditions for Newcrest Mining and the 2nd is the pause in rate hikes announced by the Reserve Bank last week. Again, this week we have the much-needed assistance of Patrick Cooks’ cartoons.

Cheers

This week in Investment Matters we have highlighted three news items relevant for client portfolios. Similar to the previous week, is the enhancement of these stories with the sensational Patrick Cook cartoons.

A little more for the collection

This week in Investment Matters we have highlighted three news items relevant for client portfolios. The highlight of the week however is the enhancement of rather plain text with the sensational Patrick Cook cartoons.

Debanking Some Fears in Global Markets

This week Investment Matters covers off on the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the US. 
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We used equity market weakness, associated with fears of contagion in the financial system given the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (and to a lesser extent smaller crypto-focused Signature Bank) in the US, to add to positions in the Australian Bank sector this week.

The end of company profit reporting season

The final week of reporting season is traditionally occupied by some of the smaller companies with less well-developed internal reporting structures and possibly some news they are reticent to share!

The week also saw the much-awaited update from EarlyPay which is discussed.

Busy week of company news

The third week of company profit reporting season is traditionally the busiest with a range of large companies presenting updates to the market. We have provided some detail on those results important to client portfolios in today’s Company News section.

Another takeover bid

Client portfolios benefited this week from another takeover bid this time for Newcrest Mining. A non-binding indicative offer came from another giant global gold miner, Newmont Mining, based in Denver USA.

2022: What Mattered?

A cursory glance at the scorecard would lead you to believe this year in markets could be met with a yawn. Yet those that lived through it know that 2022 was anything but a “yawn”.

“Gilty” as charged

The Australian market fell by a whopping 8% over the past two weeks. However, it’s set to end the week higher than it began.

We try to draw some lessons from a wild, but ultimately uneventful few weeks in markets.

Stage 5?

Better than feared. That’s how several analysts have described the August reporting season in 2022.

We wrap up this year’s Profit Reporting Season as we ponder the outlook for 2023.

Profit Reporting Season Wrap

Better than feared. That’s how several analysts have described the August reporting season in 2022.

We wrap up this year’s Profit Reporting Season as we ponder the outlook for 2023.

Ruling off FY-22

The last week of company profit reports proved to be as busy as the week that preceded it.

We detail results from PointsBet, Aurelia Metals, Costa Group and Perpetual amongst others.

Raining Results

With Profit Reporting season ramping up, we switch our focus to reports from clients’ companies.

Understanding the rise in mergers and acquisitions

Two people shaking hands with a light blue background

When the share-market does not see value or investment merit in a particular stock the stock’s share price will recede. This could be because the company’s earnings (i.e. profit) outlook is poor (e.g. Bega Cheese Ltd) or perhaps the industry in the which the company operates is struggling (e.g. ARN Media Limited).
But often someone or a company will see value where the share-market does not. The logical outcome of this is one of the more interesting aspects of investment: the merger or the acquisition. Or, in jargon: M&A.