Wry & Dry

Follow the money

The closer to the event, the greater the excitement.  Well, almost. 

The US Presidential election market has seen Mr Trump continuing to slide, more from his own stupidity than from Ms Clinton's gaining popularity.    It seems to W&D that it's an election where the voters don't want either candidate.

As W&D predicted last week, the fires of Brexit have not yet died.  In fact, like a Phoenix from the ashes, the Brexit vote has risen, remarkably.  Each side is claiming the lead, but there are still many undecided voters.  But the money is still on Stay.

The Australian federal election again sees the Coalition firming.  And strongly.  W&D's analysis of bookies' odds in 21 swinging seats has Labor gaining just 7, maybe 8 seats.   Labor needs to win 21 seats to win government in its own right. 

According to the bookies (not W&D - who is totally non-partisan) there are two emerging trends:

1.  The Labor State government in Victoria has more-or-less ensured that its federal cousins don't win any seats in that state, with its alienation of volunteer firefighters.

2.  The Labor party is fearing voter attrition to its left (i.e. to the Greens) and so is moving its non-economic policies leftwards.

Equally, the coalition's ability to shoot itself in the foot/ head/ [insert name of body part here] remains undiminished.  And look no further than yesterday's mini-media frenzy courtesy of Federal Minister Peter Dutton, a former Abbott acolyte.  Dutton, clearly wanting to put his single-digit IQ on centre-stage, put it about in the media that Mr Abbott should return to the cabinet if the Turnbull government wins the election. 

But wait!  There's more election odds and sods.  Former radio personality Derryn Hinch is $1.80 to win a Senate seat in Victoria.

Bonus!  Pauline Hanson is $1.60 to win a Senate seat in Queensland.  And Jacqui Lambie is a short $1.25 to retain her Tasmanian Senate seat.

Time for W&D to move to Chile.

Follow money