Wry & Dry

Winter of discontent [1]

Mea culpa.  Three weeks ago Wry & Dry enthusiastically predicted that cross-bench senators would look to self interest and support the government's legislation, thereby avoiding a double dissolution election and the probable loss of their gravy train.  

Well, they didn't, and now we not only have to put up with Trump v Clinton but also Turnbull v Shorten.

Regardless of the weather, it will be a gloomy winter.

The recent polls show a 49/51 2-party-preferred ('2PP') vote, i.e. Labor to win.  The bookies disagree, with the Coalition firm favourites at $1.30 v $3.50.  

W&D has three explanations why the 'money' is different to the polls.

Firstly, the 2PP in the polls is derived by distributing preferences as they were distributed at the last election.  As Tony Abbott, the Green's nemesis, led the Liberals then, it is probable that this time the more centrist Malcolm Turnbull will pick up more Green preferences.  Coupled with the possibility of a Liberal / Greens preference deal, the reality is probably 51/49.

Secondly, the 'money' believes that Malcolm Turnbull cannot possibly be as stupid as to continue his thoughtless thought bubbles of policy.  Hmm.

Thirdly, the 'money' believes that William Shorten will suffer more than Turnbull from negative advertising. Shorten + AWU + CFMEU = more fertile advertising ground than a Channel Nine international kidnapping.

But W&D is not sure the 'money' is correct.  And at this stage doesn't care.  There is a bigger issue...

...will Clive Palmer run for the Senate?  The 12th Senate seat in Queensland is up for grabs, between former PUP acolyte Glenn Lazarus and that evolutionary throw-back, Pauline Hanson. Oh, the entertainment.