"Follow the money..."
W&D has long held the view that polls are not the most accurate predictor of election outcomes. And prefers bookies' odds. So here is the latest  ...
US Presidential election
- Clinton $1.40
- Trump $4.00
- Sanders $13.00
Those odds were given before Trump said that women who had abortions should be punished.
Since his punish-women-who-have abortions comment, Trump's odds have now moved out to $4.50.
Australian federal election
- Coalition $1.20
- Labor $4.50
These odds were given before Turnbull said that giving states income tax powers might reduce federal funding of education. Napoleon Turnbull is giving the impression of being like the original Napoleon: often coming up with grand ideas - and then leaving others to fill in the gaps.
W&D reminds readers of Napoleon scarpering after his crushing defeat by the British in the quest to control Egypt - leaving his army to find its own way home. Or the retreat from the disastrous invasion of Russia in 1812 (the French Armée began with over 400,000 troops but fewer than 40,000 returned) - Napoleon 'left his men in order to reach Paris and address new military and political matters'.
The W&D analogy is not quite complete. But even W&D's agile brain is having trouble keeping up with Turnbull's outflow of seemingly great ideas. Still, two weeks ago the boy surprised with a well-thought out policy package.