Wry & Dry

Australian investors love Tsar Trump: ASX up 10% since election.

Good grief!  The Australian share market is up over 10% (including dividends) since Donald Trump was elected Tsar Of All Americans in early November.  And this in a slowing economy, with a Senatorially crippled government and already over-valued market.

Clearly Australian investors think a lot of Tsar Trump.  Well, that's the way it looks. As W&D's criminal law lecturer would have said, 'res ipsa loquitur', the facts speak for themselves [1].

Tsar Trump rally

Essentially, it seems to be a commodity rally (commodity prices had overshot on the downside and have now probably overshot on the upside) coupled with a bank rally (perhaps sentiment or expected looser regulation).  QBE is being talked about as a takeover target.

Brambles' shareholders are weeping.  And investors seem to have woken up to Telstra's hollow promises, as its half-yearly profit result revealed a fall in Earnings Per Share of 14%!

All that glisters is not technology [2]. 

And surely, the outlook for Australian companies hasn't changed by over 10% because of Tsar Trump.  Take care out there.

[1]  More accurately: 'res ipsa loquitur' means 'the thing speaks for itself'.  The doctrine is actually from the common law of torts, and is that there is an inference of negligence from the very nature of an accident or injury in the absence of direct evidence on how any defendant behaved. Although modern formulations differ by jurisdiction, common law originally stated that the accident must satisfy the necessary elements of negligence: duty, breach of duty, causation, and injury. 

[2]  Shakespeare, Merchant of Venice Act 2, Scene 7.  Portia is a beautiful, virtuous, wealthy woman who is being wooed by numerous suitors. She is not free to decide on her own whom she will marry because her late father stipulated in his will that she must marry the man who correctly picks the one casket (out of three) that contains her picture.

One casket is gold, another is silver, and the third is made of lead. The Prince of Morocco is one in a long line of suitors who tries to win Portia's hand, and he decides that it would demean Portia to have her picture in anything other than a gold casket, and so he chooses that one.

As he unlocks it, he is dismayed to find a picture, not of Portia but of Death, with a message written in its hollow eye:  "All that glisters is not gold; / Often have you heard that told. / Many a man his life hath sold / But my outside to behold. / Gilded tombs do worms enfold."