Wry & Dry

Exactly as forecast: China's official growth rate is 6.7%

China's GDP expanded 6.7% in the September quarter.  Exactly as the government had forecast.  

This is the first time in China's modern economic history (i.e. since 1992) that it has returned identical year-on-year growth rates for three consecutive quarters.  Delightful economic serenity.

China GDP 6.7

W&D dips his lid to the precision of the Chinese economy.

Think of it:

  1. 1.3 billion people;
  2. a $10 trillion economy;
  3. the world's second largest county; 
  4. 70.7 million companies; and
  5. 40.6 million private businesses

...and the government's GDP forecast comes in exactly as predicted.  Amazing.

And the economy looks as though it will hit the government's full year forecast.  Of course.

So what is the real picture?

Well, alternative indicators give a strong sense of a strong economy.  Property sales are booming; company profits are improving; manufacturing prices have started rising after more than four years of deflation.  A tangible outcome is the increase in commodity prices, of which W&D wrote last week.

Investors perhaps shouldn't be too concerned about China.