Wry & Dry #21 FY-24. Heaven: a busy week. Dubai: COP that. US: Haley’s comet.
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It’s been a busy week at the Members’ Entrance to the pearly gates to heaven.
On Tuesday Charlie Munger arrived in a limmo longer than a bus. Charlie was Warren Buffett’s conservative investment alter ego. He arrived and immediately began arguing with St Peter about heaven’s recent investments (remembering that time doesn’t matter in heaven): “That St Peter’s Basilica property development in Rome was a waste of money.”
Wry & Dry #3, FY-24: Through Dan’s eyes. Ski lodges. Superannuation funds fail.
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Anthropologists believe there may be tribes living in the farthest reaches of New Guinea who have yet to hear that Chairman Dan has cancelled the state of Victoria holding the upcoming Commonwealth Games.
Profit Reporting Season – Stockland, Mirvac, Garda and Lendlease
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we’ve maintained higher weights in cash holdings within property sub-portfolios with an expectation that a significant rises in interest rates would necessitate an increase in cap rates (implied returns on property values), a resultant reduction in property book valuations and trigger a resultant slew of equity capital raises at discounted share prices in order to restore balance sheets to within bank funding covenants.
While the dull shine of copper comes in focus, we shed little light on BHP. Similarly, our focus this week on financial services dives deeper than the four major banks.
Profit Reporting Season – Sandfire, Perpetual and Judo Bank
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This week’s Investment Matters will continue to focus on the recent reporting season.
While the dull shine of copper comes in focus, we shed little light on BHP. Similarly, our focus this week on financial services dives deeper than the four major banks.
Profit Reporting Season – Cleanaway, Emeco, ParagonCare and Worley
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This week’s Investment Matters will concentrate on key company results as the reporting season winds down. On balance, market strategists have noted that earnings revisions have been neutral across the board, which is better than historical outcomes of net negative earnings revisions by optimistic investment banking equity analysts.
Profit Reporting Season – Ventia, Johns Lyng, Earlypay and Nanosonics
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Read key company results as the reporting season winds down. On balance, market strategists have noted that earnings revisions have been neutral across the board, which is a better than historic outcomes of net negative earnings revisions by optimistic investment banking equity analysts.
Profit Reporting Season – Week 2
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This week’s Investment Matters will concentrate key company results as the reporting season ramps up.
Profit Reporting Season Update
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This week’s Investment Matters will concentrate key company results as the reporting season ramps up.
Early profit reporting season and news update
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In last week’s Investment Matters we concentrated on the confession season, the period in which companies make early announcements to the market surrounding material changes to upcoming earnings.
This week’s Investment Matters will also concentrate on news flow and early reporting season results.
Confessions of a corporate earnings season
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Most ASX-listed companies in Australia have a June fiscal/financial year-end. Accordingly, those with June and December balance days will tend to present their (half-year/annual) financial results to the market in each of the months of February and August.
Judo Capital – back to the future of banking
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As a raft of stocks in the portfolio have been taken over or have successfully met our internal price targets, we’ve been on the hunt for new names to replace.
Perpetual – finding a way to unlock value
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In the past year, we have often commented that we’ll exhibit due patience as part of our investment approach. This is required as we often seek to invest in businesses that are significantly unloved and misunderstood and where assets may, therefore be mispriced.
Premier Investments – A deep dive into a new opportunity
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In recent weeks, clients will have seen the addition of Premier Investments to their Australian equity sub-portfolios. Famously partly owned and operated (whether formally or informally) by Solomon Lew, Premier Investments is amongst the most successful discretionary retailers in Australian history.
Steadfast in its approach
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© 2024 First Samuel Limited The Markets This week: ASX v Wall Street FYTD: ASX v Wall Street Steadfast Group Limited is an Australian insurance broking network that provides insurance broking services to businesses and individuals across Australia and New Zealand. The company was founded in 1991 and has become one of Australia’s largest insurance […]
Growing – in two very different ways
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In recent weeks, we heard the mildly alarming statistics that the ASX had fallen to a low in October 2023 of 6703.2, lower than the levels seen in the broad market index at the close of October in 2007 (6770).
Falling share prices – An opportunity (not) to be wasted
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This week we highlight a new addition to the portfolio.
Inghams: laying golden eggs
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Inghams is the dominant supplier of chicken products in Australia. It is also amongst the largest positions in client portfolios. In the past week, it delivered an update on progress within the business across the first half of the fiscal year.
Lynas gets a rare (earth) licence reprieve in Malaysia
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This week, we discuss developments in the critical minerals sector and take a look at Woolworths Q1 trading update and what it may reflect with respect to the Australian consumer.
When should we be worried about worrying? Consumer confidence.
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This week we look at Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment and hope to relate it to longer-term historical trends and current portfolio construction.
RBA Speaks – more nuance, slightly less ideology?
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On Wednesday, RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent gave a speech to a Bloomberg gathering with a title that would surely only excite economists: “Channels of Transmission.”
Consolidation of Newcrest/Newmont – Do we continue to hold?
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To provide a more complete investment picture, we will continue to provide some updates on the prospects of our sub-portfolios’ companies as gleaned from our coverage of the ASX Company Profit Reporting Season.
Company Profit Reporting Season – the final instalment
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To provide a more complete investment picture, we will continue to provide some updates on the prospects of our sub-portfolios’ companies as gleaned from our coverage of the ASX Company Profit Reporting Season.
Company Profit Reporting Season: Peak Week
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The ‘peak’ week of company reporting season has just gone by. We provide some of the more relevant company-result takeaways.
Company Profit ‘Reporting Season’
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The second substantive week of company reporting season kicked off last week. We provide some of the more relevant company result takeaways.
Company Profit ‘Reporting Season’
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The first substantive week of company reporting season kicked off last week. We provide some of the more relevant company result takeaways.
Company Profit ‘Reporting Season’ preview
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It’s an intense time of year for equity market professionals. But one that is welcomed because of the opportunity to review financial data, hear about company strategy, assess management and operational performance, and to review one’s own stock selection and analytical prowess.
Lull before company profit reporting season
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Late July is when there is a lull in company news, as industrial companies are in communication lockdown before company profit reporting in August. Mining companies are busy releasing production reports and not much else, also ahead of profit reporting.
Out with the old, in with the new
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There has been a significant period of de-equitisation in the Australian equity markets in the past couple of years. Our portfolios, and performance, have been the beneficiaries of this phenomenon. Several stocks we own are subject to takeover bids:
Selectivity and Productivity
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This week we discuss two major topics. Japan and why we are more heavily invested than global benchmarks and Productivity: why is this a problem for Australia and how does it impact returns?
Going, Going, Gone – the de-equitization of the Australian Equities Market
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Two of our investments, Costa Group and United Malt, received confirmation relating to takeover bids this week.
Both takeovers provided support for our investment strategy. This strategy concentrates on finding opportunities where the market fails to price either the long-run asset or the franchise-based value of a company, and instead focuses on short-term earnings fluctuations. In such cases it is often an external party, via a takeover, that unlocks the value.
EOFY, Inflation and Small Caps
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The curtain is about to fall on another financial year. FY-23 has been a year of very good investment performance across First Samuel various portfolio strategies.
Clients should expect their Flash Performance reports within 10 days, always noting that all portfolios are individually managed, with different asset mixes and security selections.
A deep dive and a frustrating ACCC rejection
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This week, we have decided to present a (a) deep-dive on a company we have held for several years and (b) a comment on failed takeover.
The Health of Australia’s Employment Market
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This week’s Investment Matters strikes out on a different path to usual. We will present a range of background information on the changing nature of the labour force following a decade of rapid aging and massive inbound migration.
Jittery consumer meets unrepentant RBA
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This week’s Investment Matters continues our examination of the RBA’s tightening cycle and the increasing fragility amongst cohorts of Australian consumers. Have the screws been tightened too far already?
What Alternative assets do investors have?
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This week we spend some time discussing a small but important component of most clients’ portfolios, Alternative Assets. We’re in the process of making new venture capital-style investments in health and financial services.
We also discuss another new Australian Equity portfolio holding called Impedimed (IPD ASX).
Did Aussies just stop spending?
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In addition to the usual market updates, this week’s Investment Matters provides updates on two companies in client portfolios: Costa Group and Aristocrat.
Some interesting introductions
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We’re always looking for new ideas to introduce into the investment portfolios. A spate of recent takeovers within the portfolio (think Newcrest, Origin, United Malt, Pushpay, Eildon Capital) has accelerated the need for fresh ideas to replenish building cash positions.
Banks and Budgets
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A busy week in financial markets given the conclusion of the Australian Bank 1H23 profit reporting cycle and the announcement of the Federal Budget. Our discussion will focus on each in turn.
Conferencing
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This week the Australian investment world was dominated by one event – the Macquarie Equites Conference in Sydney. We will provide a quick run through of major themes and highlights from companies to which our clients have exposure.
Sayonara
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This week in Investment Matters, we have three sections that provide important updates on clients positions in Eildon Capital, Reliance Worldwide and Mineral Resources.
Over the course of the later part of this week and next many companies will provide updates to the market, including mining companies, smaller companies and those presenting at upcoming investor conferences. We will cover as many as possible of these updates in coming weeks.
O the economic front we discuss the impacts of the review into the RBA that goes beyond the changes mentioned in the headlines.
Battery Powered Portfolios
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This week in Investment Matters, we have two news items relevant for client portfolios and a piece designed to assist with understanding how an investment in the portfolio has been restructured
Gold and price of money
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This week in Investment Matters we have two items relevant for client portfolios. The first is the revised takeover conditions for Newcrest Mining and the 2nd is the pause in rate hikes announced by the Reserve Bank last week. Again, this week we have the much-needed assistance of Patrick Cooks’ cartoons.
Cheers
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This week in Investment Matters we have highlighted three news items relevant for client portfolios. Similar to the previous week, is the enhancement of these stories with the sensational Patrick Cook cartoons.
A little more for the collection
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This week in Investment Matters we have highlighted three news items relevant for client portfolios. The highlight of the week however is the enhancement of rather plain text with the sensational Patrick Cook cartoons.
Debanking Some Fears in Global Markets
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This week Investment Matters covers off on the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the US.
We used equity market weakness, associated with fears of contagion in the financial system given the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (and to a lesser extent smaller crypto-focused Signature Bank) in the US, to add to positions in the Australian Bank sector this week.
GDP, the RBA decision and some leftovers from reporting season
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With reporting season now behind us, Investment Matters returns to cover off on three companies in slightly more detail than would have been possible in recent weeks:
Ventia Services
TPG Telecom
Garda Property Group
The end of company profit reporting season
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The final week of reporting season is traditionally occupied by some of the smaller companies with less well-developed internal reporting structures and possibly some news they are reticent to share!
The week also saw the much-awaited update from EarlyPay which is discussed.
Busy week of company news
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The third week of company profit reporting season is traditionally the busiest with a range of large companies presenting updates to the market. We have provided some detail on those results important to client portfolios in today’s Company News section.
Busy week of company news, and RBA Governor Lowe commentary
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This week saw the first concentrated week of half-yearly results from the largest of the ASX-listed companies. Commonwealth Bank, Wesfarmers, Origin Energy and Seven Group, amongst others in client portfolios, updated the market.
Another takeover bid
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Client portfolios benefited this week from another takeover bid this time for Newcrest Mining. A non-binding indicative offer came from another giant global gold miner, Newmont Mining, based in Denver USA.
Strong start to 2023 – The January Effect
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In the first of Investment Matters for 2023 we will concentrate on the large volume of news and information regarding portfolio positions.
Wearing golden shoes
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Good decision, good outcome? Not necessarily. We take a look at the poker world for some insights into decision-making.
<strong>“Value” on offer?</strong>
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A key point during the CIO dinners this month was that long-term value is emerging in the Australian share market (at last). With the aid of a simple chart, we discuss the reasoning behind this and how our clients are positioned to benefit.
Understanding the rise in mergers and acquisitions
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When the share-market does not see value or investment merit in a particular stock the stock’s share price will recede. This could be because the company’s earnings (i.e. profit) outlook is poor (e.g. Bega Cheese Ltd) or perhaps the industry in the which the company operates is struggling (e.g. ARN Media Limited).
But often someone or a company will see value where the share-market does not. The logical outcome of this is one of the more interesting aspects of investment: the merger or the acquisition. Or, in jargon: M&A.